Key takeaways: The data on futures and options for Ether shows that traders are either neutral or slightly bearish, even though the price has recently gone up. Large investment funds are moving money out of Ether ETFs, and there aren't any big events or reasons pushing the price higher. This is why Ether hasn't broken the $3,800 level yet. The price of Ether has risen 9% since hitting a low of $3,355 on Sunday, but the signals from trading derivatives suggest traders aren't sure the upward trend will last. The way Ether's price has moved lately is similar to how the overall altcoin market has performed, showing that there's no clear reason for a long-lasting rally above $3,800 in the near future.
The total value of all altcoins hit $1. 3 trillion on July 28, the same day Ethereum reached its highest price in 2025. However, Ethereum's failure to go back above $4,000 by the end of July probably happened because investors were less willing to take risks, not because of any problems with the Ethereum network itself. That doesn’t mean investors are hopeful about Ethereum’s future price. Ether 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: laevitas. ch Advertisement
The three-month futures premium for Ether currently sits at 5%, which is at the neutral-to-bearish threshold. This situation is particularly alarming considering that the $3,900 ETH price level, achieved a week prior, did not succeed in shifting the indicator to a bullish stance.
The decline in Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) negatively impacts investor sentiment.
A portion of the disappointment among investors can be attributed to the decrease in deposits across decentralized applications (DApps). Over the last 30 days, the total value locked on the Ethereum network has fallen by 9%, now totaling ETH 23.8 million.
In contrast, the TVL of BNB Chain has increased by 8%, reaching BNB 6.94 billion during the same timeframe, while deposits on Solana DApps have risen by 4%, amounting to SOL 69.2 million, as reported by DefiLlama. In terms of USD, Ethereum’s base layer continues to lead with a 59% share of the total TVL.
The diminished optimism among Ether investors is evident in the ETH options markets, where the 25% delta skew (put-call) indicator hit 6% on Saturday, aligning with the neutral-to-bearish threshold.
This skew rises when the demand for protective put (sell) options declines. The present reading of 3% indicates a balanced risk evaluation, suggesting that bullish sentiment has yet to resurface.
There is insufficient institutional demand for ETH to surpass the $3,800 mark.
Currently, ETH prices on Coinbase and Kraken are trading at a slight discount in comparison to Binance and Bitfinex, which may indicate a decrease in demand from institutional desks. This situation is in stark contrast to the period from July 10 to July 23, during which price premiums likely indicated that companies were raising capital to build up their ETH reserves.
Related: Crypto funds experience a $223 million outflow, concluding a 15-week streak as the Federal Reserve dampens market sentiment.
It seems that institutional demand for ETH has significantly decreased, particularly as Ether spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reported $129 million in net outflows from Wednesday to Friday. Currently, there are no clear catalysts that could separate Ether from the wider cryptocurrency market or push its price above $3,800.
There appears to be no immediate factor that could trigger a cryptocurrency rally, especially given the ongoing risks associated with a global trade war and increasing concerns regarding the outlook for the US job market. Traders are becoming more hesitant to trust the government, as data on economic growth and inflation may have been artificially inflated by businesses and individuals stockpiling goods in anticipation of rising import tariffs.
In the absence of renewed institutional inflows, ETH is likely to continue to closely follow the overall altcoin market.
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